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STOCKS – RBLX, PYPL
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, TIP, Copper
Stocks managed to rally today during a strange trading session, with the S&P 500 finishing higher by 95 bps to close at 3,795. At this point, the movement we have seen in the market appears to resemble what we saw following the May options expiration, with a lot of churning. There is a slight upward bias right now to the pattern, but ultimately I just don’t see much going on here, and until the S&P 500 breaks 3,815, there is nothing to get excited about.
The QQQ is slightly different in that it has challenged
I stumbled on to the rising wedge in the QQQ, but I found it very quickly in the TIP ETF. The TIP ETF looks more like a bear pennant than a rising wedge. It is much easier to see and much more pronounced. If that is the correct pattern, then the TIP ETF is getting ready for another significant move lower, which means that real yields are due to rise. If the TIP ETF drops, then it likely means the QQQ ETF will follow it lower.
Copper was hit hard again today, dropping by 5% and falling to roughly
Falling oil and copper should help lower breakeven inflation expectations, implying that real rates will rise. That would match the idea of the TIP ETF dropping.
PayPal appears similar to
That’s going to be it for today.
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